Vladislav MIKHALCHENKO: Course on civil war

Vladislav MIKHALCHENKO: Course on civil war

"Evromaydan" leaders’ statement for creation of "National committee on the civil rights protection in Ukraine", for the purpose of dismantle of the current government (Arseny Yatsenyuk), and formation of parallel structures of local authorities (Oleg Tyagnibok), are, in fact, a revolution attempt and Ukraine’s involvement into a civil war. Whether it’d be hot or cold is not so important.

Indicative is that the opposition ceased its speaking of the country’s interests and the Ukrainian people on the whole. Now the center of its attention is interests of "Ukraine’s civil society", by which they mean only themselves and the supporters.

Probably, those agreements which were reached by December, 5, in the morning and conducted to the opposition termination, between these politicians and secret or known "Evromaydan's" mercenaries were considered as unacceptable, and concessions from the government — as insufficient.

Such succession of events forces to assume that "the Maydan opposition" has already received carte blanche in the west and considers to be unpunished a priori. All this has already happened in Syria, in Libya and in other countries where "the Arab spring" took place.

Today the same scenario is for Ukraine. Everybody has to understand and be ready to it. Also it is necessary to understand that the opposition and some political forces of the European Union stake on internationalization of the Ukrainian conflict. That is unpredictable bet as at present it’s not unilateral. The Ukrainian conflict is no internal political conflict between ruling Party of Regions and Opposition any more. It develops into the conflict between Europe and Russia. Perhaps, the achievement of the result is one of the main goals of Washington which doesn’t obviously support the succession of world events, especially in the Middle East, and is eager to strike "a punishment blow" to Russia, having the situation in Ukraine destabilized. The European-Russian conflict round Ukraine is equitable not only to tactical interests of the USA, but also a strategic most important task – at any cost not to allow Ukraine’s integration with Russia. The task was defined by Zbignev Bzhezinsky and it received the law status after acceptance of "The act of democracy support in Ukraine" by the Congress of the USA in 1996.

Such succession of events forces to assume that "the Maydan opposition" has already received carte blanche in the west and considers to be unpunished a priori. All this has already happened in Syria, in Libya and in other countries where "the Arab spring" took place.

Today the same scenario is for Ukraine. Everybody has to understand and be ready to it. Also it is necessary to understand that the opposition and some political forces of the European Union stake on internationalization of the Ukrainian conflict. That is unpredictable bet as at present it’s not unilateral. The Ukrainian conflict is no internal political conflict between ruling Party of Regions and Opposition any more. It develops into the conflict between Europe and Russia. Perhaps, the achievement of the result is one of the main goals of Washington which doesn’t obviously support the succession of world events, especially in the Middle East, and is eager to strike "a punishment blow" to Russia, having the situation in Ukraine destabilized. The European-Russian conflict round Ukraine is equitable not only to tactical interests of the USA, but also a strategic most important task – at any cost not to allow Ukraine’s integration with Russia. The task was defined by Zbignev Bzhezinsky and it received the law status after acceptance of "The act of democracy support in Ukraine" by the Congress of the USA in 1996.

Russia’s silence in these conditions weakens that unstable position of the current Ukrainian government, and uniting with Opposition and the western political community makes a checkmate. That will lead Ukraine and its people to new incalculable sufferings and losses.

If Russia takes the same firm and principled stand on a situation in Ukraine as in Syria, the tragedy still can be avoided threat. Civil war and terror can be avoided too, and it’ll be possible to unmask the chief conductors, "fighters for democracy" of this irresponsible policy. The masks don’t size them up, anyway.

As Oleg Tsarev, the deputy of the Verkhovna Rada from Party of Regions, fairly noticed: "An assault of the Kiev city administration and attack to Berkut forces near a monument to Lenin on the Khreshchatyk were headed by People's Deputies of "Freedom" and "Batkivshchina". Calling from all tribunes for power overthrow, organizing capture and blocking of government bodies, they seemed to be ready to divide all risks with the supporters. They don't think of possible criminal liability. It appeared, they think and work in this direction on purpose. Here, for example, Vitaly Klitschko reserved a charter for himself with an open date of a departure for a month. This is a charter he often uses and not so long ago it landed at the airport of Krivoi Rog. Until recent times, he always reserved a charter only on certain date. Now it is prepared for a special event at any time, at situation complication, using parliamentary immunity to leave the country".

Millionaire strongly integrated into the western society and the world champion in boxing in heavy weight among professionals Vitaly Klitschko is the person of a bit different status, than the former doctor-surgeon Tyagnibok or Ukrainian "kinder surprise" Yatsenyuk. He has what to lose in case of a failure, and he like any athlete of high level, perfectly knows how it is to be beaten. And consequently, he considers this possibility in all his actions, unlike these "disposable", in fact, politicians.

Once long ago, still in the early nineties of the last century very clever and knowing people explained me a difference between civilized western and wild "Post-Soviet" business: the second one is always guided by a profit maximum, and the first — by a ratio optimum profits/risks. It seems that in this regard the policy of the Ukrainian Opposition remains not western, but quite Post-Soviet.

Now the opposition staked everything. And risks are thus incredibly great.

Vladislav Mikhalchenko


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