Alexander Bulavin: Y-factor
There was such a phenomenon in history, when the residents of one of the Central African tribes only because they had no the concept of an «airplane» in response to the thundering of the engines and to the view of transnational airliners over them stated that there was nothing «there». I think that (for the moment) at least half of the residents of Ukraine, not understanding what is happening in the country, also says or thinks that «there is nothing there». And the rest 50 %, except for 10-15% of the violent, are reflecting and looking for the answer to the question, how to overcome the horrible crisis without the war, without blood, without humiliation. They go to sleep with the idea that, perhaps, tomorrow it will be better, and wake up with bitterness in their hearts, realizing that the alarm relaxation did not happen.
And, making coffee to cheer up (perhaps, soon they will not have such a possibility), they are looking for the ideal of the ruler, for the famous «light at the end of the tunnel», which will bring relieve. They may probably think of the most ridiculous, unrealistic schemes. For them, as well as for me it is obvious that there is no real «rescuer» of Ukraine today. There is little hope for the government as, having made all this mess, it is not capable of protecting people from chaos and lawlessness, which was strongly contributed by the aggressors from abroad, which set up Ukraine as a victim of the geopolitical games. The next step of the authorities to the retreat is giving up the power that of itself does not solve the crisis, but only aggravates it. Determination to save even themselves and their fortune does not induce the government to make decisive steps. To make it worse, the world centers of psychological war like 08.08.08 create every minute new world fakes and catastrophe news, such as the «guarantor» the Constitution of Ukraine has a stroke.
But even this foul, dodgy and total lies will not save the opposition leaders, «ThreeBastards» from the scorn by even their supporters, and there is no doubt that the situation may not be settled with their help. The situation seems to be almost desperate, because the violent people: fighters of the Right and Red sectors, of SS, UNA-UNSO, etc. , are not controlled by any one in Kiev and their recall from the zone of conflict seems to be very unreal.
I don’t think that there are a lot of opponents of the point of view that the West is not rushing to appease the situation in Ukraine; though, the West could do to it easily. The actions of the West resemble the iron, applied to the stomach of Ukraine (or more exactly to the stomach of its president). Millions of people ask themselves a question who will save Ukraine.
I will try to suggest one politically rather shocking version, which will certainly cause the shrapnel of criticism on both sides of Maidan.
However, the European Commissioner Stefan Fule stated that «the release of Tymoshenko is still the relevant demand of Europe to the government of Ukraine.» May be she would become the rescuer?
I want to mark from the very beginning that this pondering was caused by the desire to calm down the situation in Ukraine, to prevent the separation and bloodshed, violence and anarchy in the native country by any peaceful means.
No one will be able to suspect me, to expose my commitment, liking and support of Yulia Vladimirovna Tymoshenko. Dozens of my articles and hundreds of comments in the mass media reveal far not radiant, unstained person of Tymoshenko as a politician. But I would like to point out here the word POLICY. Domestic as well as foreign politicians and political experts my times noted her identity, charismatic and strong political will. She was often called the only «man» in Ukrainian politics. However, everything that I am going to suggest below makes sense only under one condition, that a prominent politician, who would like to be perpetuated positively in the history of the native country, and is not going to leave to the West (which is not safe for her), comes to power, avoiding aggression of the extremist forces and not worsening the civil conflict up to the stage of civil war, but only pacifying the population, by creating, new senses and the process for Ukraine.
Among numerous and even unnecessary, unjustified and unreciprocated concessions to the opposition, the President may unexpectedly for the country and for himself perform the main requirement of Europe and amnesty Yulia Vladimirovna Tymoshenko, moreover, that several times the situation was on the brink. It is very difficult to draw the political kinematics of return of Tymoshenko to the in high policy. I will not get down to it. But, let us suppose that she is met with thousands of her supporters at the gates of Kachanovskaya colony in the suburb of Kharkov. And…
There is no doubt, that on the early stages of her swift return to Hrushevskogo Street, and, most likely, to Bankova Street, she would have «to keep» Maidan and to set up impossible and offensive claims to the authorities. And in this case we should not expect that the confrontation would cool. But very soon this confrontation will become not just the suitcase without a handle, which is difficult to carry and but grudge to leave, but a concrete stake in the way of her advancement to the highest post in the Ukrainian state. The parliamentary elections, to which she called on today and the alleged early presidential elections, may take place only in the context of the civil «silence».
According to some sociologists, her poor support of people in comparison with the government is an illusion, deception and intrigues of her «friends». As all the experts know what she may do with the crowds of people speaking to them face to face, not reading the statement from a note or from the iPad. We should admit that she knows well how to formulate her rigid, consistent, logical plans into understandable, emotional and sensitive communication with people. I may personally witness it basing not on the news bulletin, but on my own experience of a political engineer, which is large enough, believe me. She does not need someone to write a plan for her, she has a plan (very comfortable conditions for a long term were created for its working out). But chaos in the country, dual power, and excessive pressure of the West would be very serious obstacles for its implementation.
Yulia Vladimirovna would co-opt the tree head (or any other) opposition very quickly and would become a single organizer of the confrontation with the government. Opposition should be cleaned up, because it is no longer a considerable help to Tymoshenko and it loses its legitimacy with each passing day. Klichko would step aside quietly. Yatsenyk would be lost in the rooms of the headquarters or in the reception rooms of Turchinov. Self-admiring but useless Lutsenko and Gritsenko would, obviously, agree to become the deputies (just disappear from the stage). The way of Poroshenko with Katerenchuk would be very sad. The rating of Tymoshenko would be the highest in the country in two or three months. The fact that the former prisoners are in favor in this country would contribute to it.
As soon as the end of the relations with the current government would be reached (she knows well to negotiate during a month and to succeed in her pressure by means of the street), she would remove Maidan as a means of pressure on the authorities, which would already suppressed. Uncontrolled actions of the protesters may threaten her as well; she needs order for the preparation of her accession to the presidential post. She is Maidan herself i.e. with the support of Europe, of the United States and, by the way, of Russia.
Any anarchy, i.e. the civil war nullifies all her chances to rule the country. So, for example, certainly having dismissed V. Zakharchenko, she would still appoint devoted, skillful and hard manager on this post. And she is able to assure the West to withdraw the fighters from the center of Kiev.
Yulia Vladimirovna Tymoshenko would quickly bring order to the regional elites, because she does not need the people’s councils, which are created (and broken up) not for the right political characters, as well as bringing about bedlam into the system of management of the country, which she is going to head.
Would Tymoshenko need neo-Nazis? I do not think that they will be allies of Yulia Vladimirovna Tymoshenko; she did not allow them to approach her earlier as well. First of all, it would spoil her international image. Secondly, excessive extremism would not help to pacify the nation. Thirdly, there is no sense in satisfying the appetites and ambitions of the neo-Nazis. She has her own appetites and ambitions. She would not dismiss Svoboda, but Svoboda would soon become a folk culture study, because going to Russia and having Svoboda behind you is rather an uncomfortable status in the negotiations.
Relying on the support of the West, Tymoshenko would have an independent course, not excluding the dialog with Russia. On the one hand Yulia Vladimirovna Tymoshenko realizes with gratitude that the head of the Russian Federation was trying to persuade the government not to repression her. And on the other hand, she has a very clear understanding she may have breakfast with croissants in Brussels, but it is possible to trade, to create business and get profits for Ukraine only in the East, first and foremost, with Russia. One cannot say that she has immaculate reputation in the environment of the Russian businessmen. However, it is possible to come to an agreement with her, and she keeps her word (she pays back, even with the water melons at the price of 10 UAH/per kilo). And it is possible that for her sake the Kremlin will retain the terms of the agreements, signed on December 17 by Yanukovych regarding the discount for gas and purchase of the sovereign bonds.
Pragmatics of Tymoshenko with Russia may help her to stitch the East and the West of the country. It will be the abrupt decline of the political conflict, which the ruler does not need. She is interested in braking (at least) of the sliding of Ukraine down into the default. I think that Yulia Vladimirovna Tymoshenko would find approaches to heads of the large budget-forming companies of the South-East, and to a number of structures in Western Ukraine. It would be easier to negotiate with her and to come to the agreements for the oligarchs (a large part of the real «commanders of the economy»). Joining of the South-East and the West is needed to ensure financial security of the subsidized regions, and to prevent a sharp drop in social payments, which may cause a new wave of unrest, that would be the threat to her government. Finally, it is practically impossible to hold more or less fruitful negotiations with all external players not from the position of a «poor relative» without joining and revival of the country.
Does this mean that we would live in a more democratic country? Hardly. To bring order to the deranged society very specific and strict measures are needed. Of course, order need to be brought not with the help of Maidans, moreover, not by the return to the Constitution of 2004. The members of the top brass would receive carte blanche from Tymoshenko because home fronts should be reliable. Yes we would live in a somewhat different country; however, such a modification is worth the cessation of blood, anarchy by the compatriots, which may occur under the conditions of uncontrollable actions.
This is just an option, may be, not the most real, not perfect, but it should be considered.