Andrey Nikiforov: Stabilishit
«We need stability in government. For approximately ten years,» the official of high rank from the Party of Regions declared a couple of years ago in the course of a private discussion. I think that is was the declaration not of his private position then, but the strategic directive of all the Politburo of Party of Regions. The people from Donetsk, having seized upon government, decided to «stabilize» it by staying in government for two presidential terms. It seems that they did not orient for a more long-term perspective. Which is, however, not surprising: they are the Ukrainian, albeit from Donetsk, politicians, and ten years for them is an eternity.
Theoretically, there is nothing unnatural in the desire of stability, but, it seems that, the orientation for the «stabilization at any price» played Old Harry with the organization men of the party at government. It soon became clear that the same methods are not applicable on the entire territory of Ukraine. You cannot turn the whole country into one large Donbass: the material is resisting. In fact, exactly this reaction for the stabilization attempts of the Party of Regions in the most hostile and incomprehensible for them regions caused such a depth and the nature of the political crisis, in which Ukraine plunged in the end of 2013. And the Party of Regions tried hard in order get the support of the inhabitants of Western part of Ukraine…
In fact, this is not the first time when politicians come to power in the country, and sometimes even on the way to it, in a vulgar, and what is more important, in totally inefficient way. Sometimes Party of Regions suddenly realizes and return to mobilize its electorate, which is assured positively react to the Russian-oriented rhetoric and socially-oriented gestures. This allows them to avoid the political collapse. But then, they start to make advances to the Western part of the country, with the incredible persistence and the predetermined doom.
It seems that some strategists of the party are trying to play on the Ukrainian territory one and the same combination every time: having the support (as they think they have) of the electorate of the South-East, they try to get on the side of the rest of Ukraine, or, at least, to pretend credibly, that they are with the rest of Ukraine. And here the Prime Minister, who recently defended his right and the right of his voters to speak, think and function in their native language, takes the lessons of Ukrainian. And the President, who has the mandate from his voters for the implementation of the Russian-oriented course of foreign policy, becomes the most ardent and effective European integrator of all the residents of Bankova Street. Did those people, for whom they did all this, liked them? The question is rhetorical.
The Ukrainian speech of Azarov, no matter how hard he would try and what progress in mastering of the state language he would do, will always be the subject of mockeries and scorns on the part of his opponents, and not only them. None of the malevolent people of the President appreciated his pace towards Europe. And now, when he shortened the reins at the last moment, the malevolent people breathed out with relief: «Well here it is… And we told you that the President (I will not use the other term, which is used by them to name V.F. Yanukovych) was only pretending to be West-oriented, and in reality he sells us to the damned Russians!»
The sense of the plan of Party of Regions is clear: the electoral potential of the South-East is approximately equal to the rest of Ukraine. That is the support of the South-East does not guarantee the victories in national elections. Some makeweight is needed. And after all the state’s name is Ukraine. And the real connoisseurs of it are not in the South-East, but are west from Dnieper. The best are in Galicia. And, by the way, it was discovered not by the people from Donetsk. Already the hetman Skoropadskiy had to surround himself by Galicians, whom he hated. But his German masters ordered him «Ukrainian Ukraine». And here one cannot cope without the Galicians, when the existence of «Ukrainian Ukraine» is ordered by Americans.
So, for the achievement of the stability the West of the country (and simultaneously the global West) needs to be disposed to oneself. But this is not enough. Since, in the South-East, particularly, outside Donbas, everything is not so unequivocal as well. Every now and again someone from the electorate of Party of Regions is trying to switch and support another party… Which, for obvious reasons, cannot be afforded. That is why the thorough cleanups of the political field of the South-East from possible competitors of the Party of Regions are organized.
Once I had to observe up close such cleanups. The administrative or, if needed, the power press befalls the ideologically close, but playing independence, party, and it is taken into the information blockade. Those, who are bending, are bent. Those, who are not bending, are broken. Finally, there is no alternative to Party of Regions, which, in spite of all its changes of the political course, is still closer for the inhabitants of South-East than Batkivshchuna and more over than Svoboda.
A few words about the Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU). Naturally, KPU may not no longer be considered as a real alternative to Party of Regions. KPU is a special peculiar bunker, picking up the electorate, which falls out of the «bag» of Party of Regions, in order to return it back to that «bag» again. For example, the disappointed in Party of Regions voter gives his/her voice for KPU, and the formed by the communists group votes in accordance with the Party of Regions. It is clear, that the larger percentage of votes the communists will get at the elections, the more significant they feel as the satellite of the party at power. But anyway they remain the satellites. As well as those Russian-oriented forces, which the government managed to bend.
However, such an approach gives a few not quite desirable complications. The first. The voters start to vote with their feet. Not accidentally, the lowest attendance in the elections in 2012 was registered in the Crimea, and in Odessa region: more than a half of voters of these basic for the party of power regions remained at home. At the expanse of the low attendance in the base, the challenge of extending its electoral geography is even more rigid. That is, there is an urgent need to gain the support of the other’s voters. But this leads to further frustration and voting with their feet of voters in the South-East … The vicious circle closes…
The second negative consequence we may observe during the European Revolution. It turned out that there is no one to protect the government but the Berkut and the Internal Troops. There is no possibility to oppose of the Russian-oriented radicals to the radicals of opposition of conditionally European orientation. Part of them, driven into the party of power, is neutralized in its heart, another part is turned into inert satellites, and someone is imprisoned. That is why the government, instead of becoming the mediator, the intermediary of the confrontation of the opposing political forces, is forced to become its party. It is a very disadvantageous, and in moral terms, unambiguously losing position.
Exactly this state of affairs allows the ideologists and propagandist of Euromaidan to lie boldly about the fact that that their movement «is the whole people of Ukraine», opposing the criminal government, which separated from the people. After all, one cannot say it is not true at all: the government really lost the connection with the people, and destroyed its potential allies itself. Finally, the second part of the country is simply not structured around the socio-political organizations, which are able to express its will and to formulate its views and interests. They are not allowed even the tenth share of what is allowed, for example, for the party Svoboda.
Thus, the struggle for stabilization turned into the situation which can be described as stabilishit. Which some interested persons and structures intent to turn into deep and final.
However, I believe, that the party of power has a small span of time to make appropriate conclusions from what is happening, to make amendments to its strategic course and tactical techniques. If it realizes the nature of its weaknesses, finds the contact with its potential supporters, acquires valuable and equal allies, the lost political balance may be restored. And there and the desired stability is near…